地壳形变与地震预报问题

SOME PROBLEMS IN THE FIELD OF CRUSTAL DEFORMATION AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

在对形变科研成果研究的基础上分析了地形变监测方法用于地震预报研究的现状和进展，对其效能作了肯定性评价。总结了这一研究领域２０余年的得失和教训，并结合当前的体制和管理现状，改革开放对地震科研的新要求，提出了一系列改善本学科生存环境，增强其效益的建议。从自然科学和社会科学的不同视角，对本学科面临的阻力和困境进行了估计，最后展望了地壳形变在地震预报中的应用前景。

In this paper,based on study of results about crustal deformation subject,the present situation and progresses for researches on earthquake prediction by using method of monitoring crustal deformation are summarized and analyzed,and the efficacy of the subject is affirmatively appraised.Meanwhile,the gains and losses in this scientific research field for last twenty years and more are summarized,and then by integrating present situation of the system and management,a series of concrete problems relating to improving the subject's existence situation and to increasing it's benefit are presented for the new requirements of reforms and openings. In this paper,the obstructions and dilemma that are faced by this subject are completely estimated in different aspects from natural science,and some suggestions and countermeasures are presented.In the end, the subject,study for earthquake prediction using crustal deformation monitoring method,it's developing prospects are forecasted.