时序分析方法拟合红铃虫卵量动态的研究

THE STUDY ON BOLLWORM POPULATION TIME SERIES MODELS

本研究将时序分析中的ＡＲＭＡ（ｐ，ｑ）模型和叠合模型首次引入昆虫生态学领域，对棉花红铃虫［Ｐｅｃｔｉｎｏｐｈｏｒａｇｏｓｓｙｐｉｌｌａ（Ｓａｕｎｄｅｒｓ）］的年内时序变化进行拟合，结果ＡＲＭＡ（ｐ，ｑ）模型的残差平方和为１．６９０１，叠合模型的残差平方和为０．０４２８，拟合效果都优于Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ方程。该方法的引入，可丰富昆虫生态学的内容，同时为多维时序分析及稳健时序分析奠定基础。

ARMA(p,q)model and periodic tendency model are used to simulate pink bollworm time series variety in a year.The result showed that the forme's sum of remainder square is 1.6901 and the latter's 0.0428.Their simulating effect is better than logistic equation. Content in insect ecology is more plentiful by conducting time series analysis,and we can lay a foundation for multiple time series analysis and steady time series analysis.