全球变暖对上海和广州人群死亡数的可能影响

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HUMAN MORTALITY IN SHANGHAI AND GUANGZHOU,CHINA

研究表明，最高气温达到３４℃以上的“热日”死亡数显著增加，“热日多出死亡数”占夏季总死亡数的百分率，上海为４．２％，广州为３．８％。广州人对热压力的适应性比上海人强。如果上海和广州未来温升不到１℃，冬夏死亡效变化不大；如温升几度，夏季死亡数上升，超过冬季死亡数的下降，全年死亡率增高。

This paper presents the potential impacts of global warming on human mortality in Shanghai and Guangzhou,basing on the statistical analysis of human mortality in summer and winter.In general,deaths from most causes in winter are more than those in summer. Deaths from cancer in both seasons are not much different. Daily mortality obviously rises on “hot day” with maximum temperature higher than 34℃,the “heat-related mortality”accounts for 4.2 percent of the total mortality in summer in Shanghai and 3.4 percent in Guangzhou. As tem- perature increases,deaths caused by accidents,respiratory diseases and mi- nor or rarely-occurred diseases increase very rapidly.People in Guangzhou are more easy to acclimatize to the hot weather than those in Shanghai. Daily mortality in winter increases slowly with decreasing in minimum temperature. If warming in doubled CO_2 conditions is less than one degree, mortality in both summer and winter will change slightly.But if climate warms up to several degrees,summer mortality will increase dramatically,then total mor- tality rate will go up.