吉林省稻叶瘟流行模拟及预测模型研究──Ⅰ稻叶瘟流行子系统模型的建立

Study on the Simulation and Forecast Model of Epidemic of Rice Leaf Blast in JiLin ProvinceI.The establishment of models of subsystems of rice leaf blast

文中运用系统分析原理及植病流行学方法对稻叶瘟流行涉及的几个主要子系统进行了定量研究．研制成了“温湿雨促病指数”、“侵染势能”、“稻体感病指数”以及“病斑的潜育显症”４个子模型，为建立稻叶瘟田间流行的模拟模型奠定了基础。

In this paper the quantitative research on some main subsystems of epidemic of the rice leaf blast were studied using the principle of the system anylisis and the method of botanical epidemiology.Thus,4 submodels--'Index of the promoting disease by temperature humidity and rain','potentiality of incubation and symptom appearance' are built.The basis is the established to set up simulation model of epidemic of rice leaf blast in the field.