泊松模型预测潜水位动态变化

Using the Poisson Model to Predict Dynamic Changes of the Phreatic Level

泊松模型预测潜水位动态变化陈锁忠，陶芸江苏省地质环境监测总站，南京，２１００４９关键词：泊松模型，潜水位，动态预测，江苏盐城ＵｓｉｎｇｔｈｅＰｏｉｓｓｏｎＭｏｄｅｌｔｏＰｒｅｄｉｃｔＤｙｎａｍｉｃＣｈａｎｇｅｓｏｆｔｈｅＰｈｒｅａｔｉｃＬｅｖｅｌ￥Ｃ...

The authors discuss the vertical water migration mechanism in the aeratedzone and offer a simple method by using the Poisson Random Model to predict the dynamic changes of phreatic level. The features of the method are to take the areatedzone between surface and groundwater tables as a complete system and take the Poisson Distribution Function as a responding function of the system as well as water loss which is caused by rainfall and evaporation in the ground as a input of the system during the calculation of the dynamic changes of phreatic level. The Poisson Distribution Function belongs to a function of discrete stochastic distribution and is similar to the distributed properties of the phreatic level observation data with the discrete time-continuous state.Additionally,the areatedzone falls to some water-storage bodies and water moving in the water-storage bodies obeys the regularity of the Poisson Distribution. The input of system and water migration in areatedzone have same dissemination regularity.Therefore,the performance could be really reflected by the output of the system i.e.dynamic phreatic level. By using the model to predict dynamic changes of phreatic level,the relationship between the atmospheric water,phreatic evaporation and level can be understood correctly. It is suitable to use in plain regions with low angular slope where the water migration in the areatedzone belongs to influent seepage-evaporation type.