用贝叶斯准则对翻阳湖都昌站最高水位进行长期预报的尝试

Using bayesion criterion try to make long-term forecast of the highest annual water level in Duchang station of the Poyang Lake

根据贝叶斯准则，建立鄱阳湖年最高水位判别指标的计算公式，确定年最高水位等级判据，用以进行鄱阳湖年最高水位长期预报的尝试，效果尚属满意。

According to the Bayesion criterion tlieorize a calculating formula ofdiscriminating index of the highest annual water level in Poyang Lake,determinethe ground of class discriming,for the use of the long-term forecast of the highestanliual water level in the Poyang Lake,the result is of fairly satisfactory.