洪水风险率HSPPB模型及其应用

Flood Risk HSPPB Model and Its Application

本文首次将Bayes推断原理引进随机点过程理论中,建立了洪水风险率分析的HSPPB模型类,针对不同的先验信息条件,导出了相应的PBH模型与PBG模型,在这两种洪水风险率模型中,将风险率R与时间t及洪水大小x有机地联系在一起,对于大中型水利工程遭遇超标洪水的风险率分析是很有意义的。最后,对宜昌站洪峰随机点过程的计算结果表明,HSPPB模型是洪水风险率分析一类切实可用的模型。

The Bayes reference principle has been introduced into the stochastic point process theory for the first time,and the flood risk HSPPB model has been analyzed. The authors have derived the PBH model and PBG model in accordance with different existing information, in which risk R,and time t have been combined with flood x So it is very significant to analyze the flood risk for large-scale and medium-sized water conservancy project. The example about Yichang flood peak counted by point process shows that HSPPB model is a good one for flood risk analysis.