云南交通运输系统发展战略及布局研究

Study on the Developing Strategy and Layout of the Transportation System of Yunnan Province

根据云南省交通运输发展状况和问题，利用系统的思想和方法对未来各经济区客、货流分布结构进行了预测。根据各种运输方式的技术经济特，或及云南社会、经济、地理环境等因素，利用层次分析方法，提出了各种运输方式的合理发展比例，用定性和定量相结合的方法进行各种运输方式今后３０年内的运输需求预测，并结合未来的运输需求，运用供给度理论进行运输能力评价，进而提出了能适应云南社会经济发展，充分发挥区域优势和区位优势的交通运输系统的发展战略及布局，对云南交通运输发展规划工作有现实指导意义。

Based on the present developing situation and problems of Yunnan's transportation,system-atic theory and method are applied to forecast the disttributive structure of the flow of passengers andgoods. According to the factors of technical and economic featmes of each means of transportation,as wellas Yunnan's social,economic and geographical conditions,using analytic hierarchy process to the authorputs forward the reasonable developing proportion of each means of transportation. By the way of combining classification with quanitity determining,the requirements of each ineans of transportation of thecoming 30 years are forecast.Considering the future needs of transportation, the author appraises thetransportation capacity by apply degree theory,and frames the developing strategy and lugout of transportation system which fits to Yunnan's social developing economy and brings regional suporiority and local supriority into fulliplay.It has the guiding practical significance for Yunnan's transportation development project.