山东沿海森林人口承载力探讨

A NEW CONCEPT-FOREST-POPULATION CARRYING CAPACITY IN THE COASTAL AREA OF SHANDONG PROVINCE

提出森林人口承载力概念，并在探讨其概念、理论和研究方法的基础上，以山东沿海森林资源为对象，以人均消耗木材、薪柴、水果、干果等四项主要实物为经济指标，以人均需求森林面积为环境指标，用现有的资料，综合地、动态地分析山东沿海的森林与人口、环境、资源、能源及经济社会发展的相关关系，预测了山东沿海森林在不同发展时期、不同生活水平条件下的森林人口承载力。

A new concept,forest-population carrying capacity, is defined in this paper. Based on the concept, a research methodology was developed to analyze the correlations between the forest resources and population, and to estimate the capacity of forest to carry population for the different living standards in the different periods of social-economic development using the data available and economic index, representing the four kinds of basical living materials,which included the average timber consumption per capita, fuelwood, fruits and nuts, and environmental index for necessary forested land per capita. The results showed that fruits and nuts would be over produced, family-used wood in shortage to some extent and the environmental quality would be somewhat improved. However,the supply of fuelwood for the rural community would still remain a serious problem. Changes of the forestpopulation carrying capacity will depend on the consumption structure of forest resources.