摘要
目前,民航统计系统全都采用了电子计算机统计、汇总、传送报表,大大提高了统计工作效率,但对这些大量数据使用电子计算机进行有效处理,即统计分析电算化,仍然是民航经营管理工作中一项重要的课题。笔者在计划统计工作中,充分利用计算机快速、方便的特点,编制了生产经营效益评估、航空市场预测、航班客运波动规律分析等应用软件,使大量繁杂的统计数据得到快速处理,大大减轻了统计分析工作中的脑力和体力劳动,提高了工作效率和质量。本文仅就灰色模型 GM(1,1)预测软件的建立及其应用作一简单介绍,以此引起航空界有关人士对统计分析电算化的兴趣。
The theory of grey system is the data analysis and processing,modelling,system forecast and decision-making of studying grey system as well as the mathematical theory of system control.The prominent advantage of grey system theory is not to seek lots of samplings to experimental data.It can be analysed with only more than three data and is not necessary for original data to be conformed with certain distribution of probability.Due to above two points,it is more praticable than the statistical tech- nique of data,and due to these features it's very applicable to the forecast in civil aviation.The grey model GM (1.1) comput- erization can obtain forecasted model and results swiftly and accurately avoid tedious mathematical calculation,raise working efficiency and quality,and provide a good assistant for managing personnel of civil aviation to make a scientific decision.
