未来气候变化对杉木生产的可能影响

POSSIBLE IMPACT OF FUTURE CLLMATE CONDITION ON CHINESE FIR PRODUCTION OVER CCHINA

在估算未来大气ＣＯ＿２浓度倍增导致年平均气温场和降水量场变化的气候背景下，应用水热指数法对我国杉木分布边界的地理变迁及杉木商品材生产基地生态气候适宜性的变化进行了分析。估计未来的气候变暖将使杉木分布的南界与北界有不同程度的北移，适宜杉木生长的面积将会缩小；同时，现有的商品材基地届时将只有个别片能继续保持优越的生态气候，多数基地的杉木生长生态气候适宜性将减低。

With three GCM's- produced change in annual mean temperature and rainfall on ac-count of CO_2 concentration doubling in the atmosphere as the climatic background’analysis is per-formed of the expected change of the geographic limits of Chinese firs growing in China and of e-cological climate adaptiveness of the commercial timber plantations.It is estimated that the north-ward shifts of both the southern and northern limits will occur to varying degree,with the area tobe reduced.Further,only a small part of the fir-growing bases now available will keep excellentconditions of the ecological climate.