地气耦合法对1993年汛期降水预报的总结

A Summary in Earth-Atmosphere Coupling for 1993 Flood Season Precipitation Forecast

１９９３年的汛期降水预报除了多年来的一套常规方法外，还利用了近两年的两个新研究结果。（１）地震场与降水场的关系：太平洋西岸及台湾“弱震”，将有利于我国东部多雨。另外，１９９３年７月至１９９３年３月长江流域发生６次２—３级地震，我国北方地震很弱，这预示长江中、下游的高地温区将发展扩大，故预报本年江南北部多雨；（２）３．２ｍ地温距平场本身的演变规律。在１９９２年１２月－１９９３年２月的图上共有１４个高温中心，逐个追查其历史演变，高地温中心仍存在或加强，预报为多雨，相反则少雨。

Find season precipitation forecasts of 1993 were made with two new research results in the last two years except the routine methods many years ago. (1)The relation between earthquake field and precipitation field:there are weak earthquakes in the Pacific Ocean and Taiwan,this will benefit east China with much rainfall,from July 1992 to March 1993 six earthquakes of magnitude 2-3 occurred in the Changjiang river valley and the earthquakes in North China are very weak. This forebodes the high temperature area of the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang rivier,so we forecast in the northern part of the Changjiang river basin there will be much rain this year. (2) Developing rule of 3. 2 meter earth temperature anomaly field. There are 14 high temperature centers at the figure of 3. 2 meter earth temperature anomaly from Dec. 1992 to Feb. 1993. The historical development,suggest,that if high ternperature centers still exist or become strong,much rainfall could be received,otherwise,thexe will be less rainfall.