热带气旋异常运动可预报性问题的理论研究

Theoretical Studies on the Predictability of the Tropical Cyclone Anormal Motion

简要讨论了３个问题：（１）热带气旋移动与大尺度波动流型演变两者可预报性的差别。（２）热带气旋移动可预报性问题的两类方法。（３）近几年来热带气旋移动方预报性研究的若干结果。

The basic differences of predictabilities between the tropical cyclone motion (TCM) and the evolution of large-scale wave flow patterns are discussed, brief discription of the two kinds of methods on studies of the predictability of TCM,and review of recent progress concerning the predictability of TCM are made.