1991年江淮暴雨期间环流异常的动力延伸预报试验

THE EXPERIMENT OF DERF WITH T42L9 MODEL FOR DEKAD AND MONTHLY MEAN CIRCULATION ANOMALY DURING THE SUMMER HEAVY RAINFALL PERIOD IN 1991

介绍了利用Ｔ４２Ｌ９模式对１９９１年夏季江淮流域暴雨期间旬和月平均环流异常的动力延伸预报（ＤＥＲＦ）试验和利用ＯＳＵ－ＡＧＣＭ进行青藏高原热力异常敏感性试验的结果，指出Ｔ４２Ｌ９模式对造成暴雨的环流异常有一定的预报能力，并证实高原的热力异常是引起江淮暴雨的一个重要因子。

In this paper, the results of experiment of dynamic extended-range forecasts (DERF) with T42L9 model for dekad and monthly mean circulation during the summer heavy rainfall period in 1991 over the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley and the sensitive experiment of thermo-dynamic effect of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the circulation anomaly are presented. It has been shown that DERF method with T42L9 model has some ability for prediction of mean circulation anomaly including the summer heavy rainfall,and the plateau,s thermo-dynamic anomalous effect may be an important factor for the persistent rainfall process.