E1Nio事件与广东各区域夏季旱涝的关系

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EL NINO EVENTS AND DROUGHT/FLOOD OF EACH AREA IN GUANGDONG DURING THE SUMMER SEASON

应用广东境内分布较均匀的２０个测站的降水资料，分析了Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ事件与广东各区域夏季（本文指５—８月，下同）降水的关系，以及赤道东太平洋海温、南海海温的变化对广东夏季降水的影响，并探讨了Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ事件与广东各区域历史旱涝的关系。结果表明，把广东看为一个整体，Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ事件与其夏季旱涝关系不明显。但把广东划分为西北部、东北部、中部及西南部，则在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ事件当年，西北部偏旱，西南部偏涝；在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ事件次年，西北部偏涝，西南部偏旱；而东北部及中部在Ｅ１Ｎｉｎｏ事件当年和次年雨量均偏多，但当年比次年的偏多率大。

In this paper, the relationship between E1 Nino events and precipitation in Guangdong region around the summer seasons, and the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Equatorial East Pacific and the South China Sea to precipitation in Guangdong around summer seasons are analysed by using precipitation data of twenty stations and SST. The relationship between E1 Nino events and drought or flood is also discussed according to data from 1845 to 1954. The results show that there are no apparent correlations between E1 Nino events and events of drought or flood around summer while treating Guangdong as a whole. However, droughts would occur in the northwestern part of Guangdong and floods in the southwestern part in E1 Nino event years, while floods would occur in the northwestern part and droughts in the southwestern part in the year next to the E1 Nino event. More rainfalls occur over the northeastern and central areas in the E1 Nino and the next year, but they are especially inclined to occur in event years.