关于不确定因素在水沙分析计算中的影响

Impacts on Flow and Sediment Analysis and Calcuation Posed by Uncertainties

通过分析基本观测资料的精度、资料代表系列的选择以及泥沙数学模型的验证等几种不确定因素在水沙分析计算中的影响，建议采用统计试验法或称蒙特卡洛法来综合评价水沙计算的成果，即将各层次、各类型的随机变量的概率分布曲线综合起来组成一条能反映最终成果的概率分布曲线，得出一个比较确切的数字范围，成果可信，便于规划设计应用。

ased on the analysis of the impacts on flow and sediment routing posed by such uncertalties as accuracy of the othervation data, selection of sample series and test of sediment mathernatiDe models. it is recommended that integrated evaluation of flow and sediment calculations be made with statistical test method (Monte Carlo method). This means that probability distribution curves of random variables with various levels snd with types are integrated to result in a curve reflecting the md resultS. Such curve would give relatively accurate and reliable figures in favor of planning and design.