黄河下游1566年后和1875年后决溢时空变化研究

Study on the Space-Time Variations of Dike Breaching and Overflow in Lower Yellow River in the Year of Following 1566 and 1875.

迄今为止对黄河下游历史时期决溢时空变化的研究多为一般性统计，本文尝试从多角度进行统计，并且把堤防系统相对完善、河道相对稳定的１５６６～１８５５年和１８７５～１９３８年两个时期作为特定的研究时段。研究表明，上述两时段内黄河下游决溢地点除了存在自下向上移动的趋势外，还存在自上向下的移动趋势，决溢的时空变化除了与人为因素有关系外，还与中游的旱涝期有一定关系。决口频繁的地点和地段，在空间分布上也有一定规律。

Past study on the space-time variations of dike breaching and overflow in lower Yellow Riverwas in the status of general statistics. This paper attempts to analyze the patterns from differentangles. We pick two time periods, 1566～1855 and 1875～1938, when the river channel had beenrelatively stable, study shows that during these two periods, breaching or overflow sites on thelower Yellow Rivet not only exhibit from downstream to upstream, but also show from upstreamto downstream. Excluding the factors caused by human activities. the space-time distribution ofsites is found to relate to the drought and flood seasons in the middle reach of the river. The distribution of frequent breaching sites show definite recognizable pattern.