黄河防洪调度软件系统分析与结构设计

Analysis of a Software System and Structural Design for Yellow River Flood Regulation

黄河防洪调度系统，是黄河防洪决策支持系统的一个子系统。黄河防洪决策是一个复杂的、半结构化的决策过程，防洪调度是整个决策过程的关键环节。该系统在实时汛情信息处理系统、防洪工程数据库、地理社经数据库等外部系统的支持下，分析雨情、水情、工情实况，预测未来的发展趋势；根据暴雨、洪水预报，制定防洪工程运用方案，进行方案优劣及风险分析，为防洪决策提供信息支持。本文通过对黄河防洪调度决策过程和决策问题的初步分析，探讨调度软件系统在各个决策环节上的支持内容和支持方式，讨论预案与实时调度方案的关系、方案生成的基本思路以及专家知识的利用策略，提出决策支持系统（ＤＳＳ）与专家系统（ＥＳ）相结合的总体逻辑结构。

The system for Yellow River's flood regulation is a sub-routine in the entire flood preventiondecision system. Flood prevention decision is a complex, semi-structural decision process, andflood regulation serves a key link in the decision process, supported by external systems, such asthe high water status analysis system, the flood prevention engineering date base, and the social economic date base, it makes forecast after analyzing the precipitation and runoff date. Togetherwith precipitation and flood forecast, it suggests the appropriate flood prevention measures aftercomparing various schemes for effectiveness and risks, the output enters into the final flood prevention decision. Based on a preliminary analysis of the process in flood prevention decision, andinvestigation into the role of software system in the decision process, this paper discusses the relation between forecast and execution plan, and the review process leading to the final decision' Following also the policy to utilize expert advices, we suggest a logic structure to merge the decisionsupport system (DSS) with the expert system (ES)