基于ATMS和证据理论的不确定性推理方法

A NEW UNCERTAINTY REASONING MECHANISM BASED ON ATMS AND EVIDENCE THEORY

本文提出了一种新的不确定性推理方法ＨＵＩＭ．这种方法把基于假设的真值维持系统（ＡＴＭＳ）和Ｄｅｍｐｓｔｅｒ—Ｓｈａｆｅｒ的证据理论有机地结合在一起，使得ＡＴＭＳ这种符号代数系统可用来处理以数值形式表示的不确定性信息．将该方法应用于基于规则的系统，可以弥补这类系统在不确定性推理方面所存在的某些不足．

This paper proposed a kind of new uncertainty reasoning mechanism called hybrid uncertainty inference model (HUIM). By this mechanism, the assumption based on the truth maintaince system (ATMS) and simplified Dempster-Shafer's evidence theory has been well combined. And as a result, the ATMS, which is originally viewed as only a symbol algorithm system, can be used to express uncertainty information in the manner of numerical values and can make it possible to calculate the numerical information under the combination rule of evidence theory. once this method is applied to rule -based on the systems, it would be hopeful that some weakness caused by the uncertainty reasoning of existed rule-based on the systems could be overcome.