对1989年大同－阳高地震序列两次强余震发震时间的灰色预测

Gtey Forecasting to Occurrence Time of two strong Aftershocks of the 1989 Datong-Yanggao Earthquake Sequence With Magnitude 6.1

应用灰色系统理论对１９８９年大同－阳高６．１级地震序列两次强余震（系指Ｍ＿Ｌ≥４．７）的发震时间进行了尝试性预测，其结果与事实比较吻合，表明该方法在震后短时间内，用仅有的部分序列资料来估计其发展趋势，具有一定的实际意义。

The Grey system theory are used in this paper for an attempt to forecast occurrence time of two strong aftershocks of the 1989 Datong-Yanggao earthquake sequence withmagnitude 6.1.The forecast results cor-resporid with the real occurrer1ce time,It shows that the method,at the moment after main shock,has practi-cal significance for a forecasting its trend using the limited sequence dsta.