日本发生中强地震的灰色预测

Grey Forecast of Occurence of Moderate Strong Earthquake in Japan

应用“灰色控制系统”理论，选取１９８０年１月至１９８８年１２月日本的地震序列资料，将（６．０，７．０］级地震作为样本，建立了预报地震发震时刻的动态模型。选取了最佳模型对日本未来发生中强地震的时间进行了预测。从函数变换的观点，对ＧＭ（１，１）模型进行了广义解释，指出序列建模必须从满足光滑度的时刻计起。大量计算表明，用“足够小量”样本建模比大量样本建模拟合与外推精度要高，并从信息论角度进行了剖析。

A dynamic model for forecasting the occurrence time of earthquake is established by using “Grey controlSystem”theory,and the earthquake sequence data in Japan from ’980～1988 are choosen to take earthquakeswith magnitude(6.0,7.0] as samples. A optimal model is adopted to forecast the occurrence time of mode-rate strong earthquake in Japan. The model GM (1,1)is explained generally on the view of function transfor-mation,and it is shown that the degree of slick must be satisfied in order to establish the sequence model.Nu-merical results show that the accuracy of fitting and extrapolation of the sequence modelling on″ adequate mi-nority″samples is higher than on mass samples,and the paper analyzes the accuracy based on information the-ory.