山西地震带地震活动趋势的基本预测

Foundamental Prediction of the Seismicity Trend in Shanxi Seismic Zone

对山西地震带的中长地震趋势进行了探讨。并从华北第３、４地震活动期的对比、山西地震带地震活动的参与以及活动规律等方面进行了研究，确定出山西地震带目前所处的活动阶段，并对可能发生地震的３要素作出了初步预测。

The long-term and medium-term forecast of seismicity trend in Shanxi seismic zone has been studiedbased on the comparison of third seismicity period with fourth period in North China, the seismicity of Shanxiseismic zone in the two periods and the seismicity low of Shanxi seismic zone. The three elements of futurepossible earthquake have been forecasted based on that Shanxi seismic zone is in the active stage at present.