摘要
影响上海市小麦赤霉病发生的主要气候因子是４月上旬相对湿度、４月份每天最低温度以及４月下旬至５月上旬的相对湿度和降雨量。本文依据小麦赤霉病多年的发病程度及其主要影响因子和１９５６～１９８５年田间资料，按逐步回归方法统计分析，制定出小麦赤霉病病穗率预测模式：Ｙ＝３．１２４０Ｘ３—２．４０９６Ｘ１＋０．０２５８Ｘ２＋６．０１４９Ｘ４－４２．２８００；小麦赤霉病病情指数预测模式：Ｙ＝６．６００６Ｘ１＋０．０１３０Ｘ２－６．６２９４。上述模式用于１９８６～１９９２年预测预报，其准确率达８５．７％。
The major factors related to the occurrence of wheat scab(Gibberella zeae)in Shanghai area were relative humidity(X1 ) in early April, minimal daily temperature(X2) in April and relative humidity(X3) and rainfall(X4) from late April to early May.According to the field data from 1956～1985, the forecasting model for wheat scab occurrence by stepwise regressional analysis was Y=3. 124 OX3-2. 409 6×1+ 0. 025 8X2 +6. 014 9X4-42. 238 0; and that for disease index was Y=6. 600 6X1+0. 013 0X2-6. 629 4.The accuracies of these models were all 85. 7% in the prediction of wheat scab during 1986 to 1992.
出处
《上海农业学报》
CSCD
1994年第2期67-70,共4页
Acta Agriculturae Shanghai
关键词
小麦
赤霉病
病情指数
预测
模式
Wheat scab
Disease index
Correlation coefficient
Forecasting model
