事故与熵——事故发生可能性计算的新方法

Accidents and Entropy:A new Framework for Measuring the Potential for the Accidents

本文从熵增加的观点描述了事故的本质,剖析了人机系统的实质与特性,提出了风险熵与事故势的概念,给出了计算风险熵与故事势的方法.结果表明,系统具有二重性.在系统运行期间,系统具有封闭体系的特性;在休整期间.系统具有开放体系的特性.事故是运行系统的必然发展趋势,是一种自发过程,是运行系统的固有属性.由于在系统熵增的过程中信息与能量的交换,所以可以把事故定义为系统熵增加的结果.避免事故发生的原理是不断向系统输入信息或负熵以抵消系统内部的熵增加.

This paper has developed a new framework to assess the potential in some man -machine systems. First of all,the nature of the man machine systems and accidents are desoribed from an entropy increase point of view,and then the contributing factors and computing arithmetic are identified. The result shows that the system has two character-istics;the porperties of an open system in leisure time,and the porperties of an isolate system in working time. The accident of a system is inevitable trend,in other words,it is a spontaneous process and an instinct character of the systems in operation. An accident can be defined as the result of the increase of entropy of the system,since the exchange of the information and energy happened in the process of the increase of entropy. The principle of avoiding an accident is to input information or negative entropy in order to decrease the increase of entropy in the inner system.