平滑系数优化的季节性指数平滑法

Seasonal Exponential Smooth Method of Optimizing Smooth Coefficients

本文给出了一种基于单纯形法对平滑系数寻优的季节性指数平滑法,依据这一方法进行预测,总体残差大大降低,精度明显提高。文中通过某电力系统负荷预测结果表明,采用单纯形法对平滑系数寻优比采用经验数据预测的百分比误差降低两倍多。

This Paper gives a seasonal exponent smooth method in which the smo- oth coefficents are optimalized Algorithms being used in the Predication, the total variance is decreased and the precision is increased.In this pa- per the results of predicating the toads in some electrical system show that the percentage of the errors of optimizing the smooth coefficients by using the simple-type method is over two times less than by using the experimental predication.