FUZZY综合评判在棉红铃虫测报上的应用

APPLICATION OF FUZZY MULTIFACTORIAL EVALUATION TO THE FORECASTING OF COTTON PINK BOLLWORM(PECTINOPHORA GOSSYPIELLA SAUNDERS)

本文以在浙江省宁波市镇海区进行的１２年棉红铃虫（ＰｅｃｔｉｎｏｐｈｏｒａｇｏｓｓｙｐｉｅｌｌａＳａｕｎｄｅｒｓ）性信息素诱蛾试验为基础，通过相关分析，选取第一代蛾高峰期前累计诱蛾，棉花现蕾期和６月中旬到７月上旬的降水量３个参数，构建对第二代平均卵量进行综合评判的模型。由于多种因子对诱蛾量的影响具有不确定性和模糊性，采用ＦＵＺＺＹ综合评判模型建模。以回报准确率为标准，对９种权重、４类评判矩阵和６种广义算子以及它们的特性作了比较和讨论。在构建的２１６个模型中，有９４个模型的历史符合率达到１００％。在这些模型的基础上，得到了一个优化评判模型。该模型与常规线性回归模型比较具有准确、方便、所含信息多等待点。在评判模型的基础上，增加第一次发现卵量的日期，构建了预报模型，该模型加强了预报的功能。模拟运行，可得到“预报速查表”；预测结果与大田相符。该研究为性信息素和其它行为调节物质在测报上的应用以及动态经济阈值的研究提供了一些新的思路。

t Zhenhai region,Ningbo, Zhejiang, a 12-year experiment on pink bollworm was carriedout to develop related monitoring and forecasting procedures with sex pheromone traps.Through optimum correlation analyses,accumulated male catches/trap/night before peakcatches in the first generation,the date of 50%squaring plants and the total precipitationfrom mid-June to early July were selected as the parameters to build models for evaluatingthe mean egg counts in the second generation, Since the uncertainty and fuzziness of malecatches,the fuzzy multifactorial evaluation model was adopted.With the predictive accuracyas criterion,nine kinds of fuzzy weights,four types of fuzzy matrices,and six generalized op-erators were compared respectively and their basic properties were discussed.94 evaluatingmodels,among 216 constructed models,an historical field data in 100 percent.Based on thesemodels,optimum evaluating model was obtained.Comparing the fuzzy optimum model withmultiple linear models,it was distinct that the fuzzy model was more accurate,convenient andinformative.Based on the optimum evaluating model,a predicting model was constructed byadding the first date of finding eggs as the fourth parameter.This model enhanced forecastingfunction. By simulating operation,a practicable“quick index table for forecasting”was given.The simulated results coincided with the actual field incidence.This research provide a newidea for economic threshold and forecasting procedure by means of pheromone and other be-haviour-modifying chemicals.