漩涡模型及其在白暨豚种群管理中的应用

VORTEX model and its application on the Management of Chinese River Dolphin (Lipotes vexillifer)population

漩涡模型作为一种用于野生动物种群生存力分析的计算机模拟工具，已在濒危物种的保护和管理方面得到了广泛的应用。本文介绍了漩涡模型的产生和特征，同时使用这一模型完成了长江中白暨豚（Ｌｉｐｏｔｅｓｖｅｘｉｌｌｉｆｅｒ）种群生存力分析。模拟的结果表明，在未来１００年内，白暨豚在高、中死亡率的条件下，种群灭绝概率分别为１．０和０．５左右。但是，在死亡率低和极低的条件下，白暨豚的灭绝过程可能持续１００年以上，或永远也不会灭绝。开始种群大小对白暨豚的平均灭绝时间有一定的影响，但对种群生长率（ｒ）却没有影响。在高、中、和低死亡率条件下，白暨豚种群生长率分别为－０．０７、－０．０４和－０．０２。

ORTEX model, as a computer simulation tool for wildlife population viability assessment (PVA), has beenused extensively on some endangered species management and conservation. In this paper, the VORTEX'sOrigination and features are introduced, and the PVA for Chinese River Dolphin in wild is completed byusing VORTEX. The simulation model shows that, at high or medium mortality level, the probability ofextinction for Chinese River dolphin is 1. 0 or around 0. 5 within the next 100 years. However, theextinction process could take longer than 100 years at low mortality level, and might not occur at very lowmottality level. The starting population size has a small impact on the mean time to extinction of thisspotes, but no effect on the population growth rate (r). The values of r is -0. 07, -0. 04, and -0. 02respectively at high, medium, and low mortality level.