灰色数列预测模型在煤工尘肺预测中的应用

APPLICATION OF GERY SERIES FORECASTING MODEL IN THE COAL WORKERS' PNEUMOCONIOSIS FORECAST

本文利用灰色数列预测模型对煤工尘肺年度患病人数进行了预测,同时与指数曲线模型和二次抛物线模型的预测效果进行了比较。结果表明:灰色数列预测模型外推性预测效果优于另外二种模型。

In this paper, gery series forecasting model was used to forecast the yearly patients suffering from coal worker's pneumoconiosis. Meanwhile, forecasting effect of the model was compared with that of exponential curve and quadratic parabola model. The result showed that forecasting effect of gery series forecasting was better than the other two forecasting model.