水库群防洪调度的大系统多目标决策模型研究

STUDY ON THE LARGE-SCALE AND MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING MODEL OF MULTIRESERVOIR SYSTEMS FOR REAL-TIME FLOOD OPERATION

根据大系统多目标决策理论，提出了库区实时防洪调度的多目标决策模型．该模型克服了动态规划法的“维数灾”，并将专家经验和防洪系统的特点结合于实时防洪调度中．实例计算表明，该方法有效地减少洪灾风险，对协调各地区、各部门之间的矛盾，为决策者提供多个实时防洪调度的备选方案．

A large-scale multiobjectiye optimal decision making modelfor multireservoir systems has been developed in this paper, the safe ofreservoir itself, the flooded loss of the zone Protected by the reservoirs and thesafe of bank are considered wholly as the objectives tO form multiobjectivecoordination solutions. Then, using fuzzy distinguish theory, multi- indix offlood control efficacy is considered as judging criterion to find optimalcoordinative solutions. The charaters of flood control engineering systems andexperts' eperiences are also considered in this model. Not only may thewhole loss of flood control system be decreased, but also may the flood risk bedecrasaed effectively at the same time. The application of this model illustratesthat the dimensionality obetruction which is difficult to Dynamic Programmingmay be overcomed effectively, it is a new,effective flood control method.