长江径流时间序列混沌特性的定量分析

Quantiative Analysis of Chaotic Characters for the Yangtze River Flow Time Series

定量分析了长江径流时间序列的混饨特性，论述了长江径流时间序列的李雅普诺夫指数的计算和实际意义，计算了长江径流时间序列的长程相关性指数，即分数阶差分指数，讨论了这一指数与相关分维的相对值可能存在的关系。这些非线性信息的提取，将进一步揭示径流时间序列的变化规律，并将对提高预测水平产生影响。

This paper quantifies the chaos characters of annual flow time series for the Yangtze River, deals with Lyapunov exponents and their practice meaning,calcu ates the long-term correlation exponent, i. e. tractional difference exponent, and discusses the possible relation between the exponent and the value of the correlation fractal dimension. Theses nonlinear information can reveal the regularity for the annual flow time series and advance the prediction level.