长江三峡洪水预报系统简介

The Flood Forecasting System for the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River

本文介绍了利用水文数字模型制定三峡洪水作业预报系统的尝试，对一些有关问题进行了讨论.水利部水文水利调度中心自1985年起已将该系统用于作业预报，1987年移植于葛洲坝电厂做入库流量预报．该系统从历史水文资料输入、模型率定、实时资料处理到预报结果输出，以及历史资料的显示、过程线对比等都实现了计算机自动化，预报精度完全满足生产要求，是一个比较完整的实时洪水预报系统．

This paper puts forward a system for operational flood forecasting for the Three Gorgesof the Yangtze River. The system is based on a mathematical model, makes comparisons of variousmodels and discusses some problems on real-time corrections,the evaluaton of forecasting accuracy andrainfall rpocessing within the lead time of the forecasting period. This system has been used for operational hydrological forecasting by the Hydrological Forecasting and Water Control Center since 1985and,as improved upon,includes the following four parts: hisorical hydrological data entry, model calibration, real-time data processing,and real-time forecasting. It is a fairly complete computerlzed systemfor flood forecasting with a forecasting accuracy that meets operational requirements.