实时水库优化调度决策支持系统及其应用

Decision Support System for Optimal Reservoir Real-time Operation and Its Application

水库调度是水库运行管理的中心环节，在水库调度中，将数学模型与专家系统结合使用，建立长中短期套接的实时兴利优化调度、防洪实时代化调度及其辅助模型系统；各模型通过逐时段滚动控制与反馈相结合，可以增加水库调度的效益，减少不确定性因素对调度的影响．并提出用专家系统对优化调度的各个环节进行评价，以尽可能降低优化调度方案的风险，提高优化调度方案的可接受程度．所提出的方法已编制出使用灵活方便的软件，并经实际使用，效果良好。

The optimal operation of reservoir is the key of reservoir management. A decision support system of the optimal operation of reservoir is proposed in the conjunctive use of mathmatical models and expert system. The models of real-time water utilization and flood control are established with the consideration of the relationships of long, middle and short-term operatien. The uncertain factors of reservoir operation are decreased by means of progressive control and feadback techniques, so that the benefits of optimizatien can be increased. The results of optimization are assessed by means of expert system, so that the risk of reservoir operation can be decreased. A set of flexible computer softwares is compiled, and practical computations show the proposed method is effective in application.