水库泥沙淤积量风险分析

Risk Analysis of Reservoir Sedimentation

水库泥沙淤积是水库工程较为重要的问题。由于水库泥沙淤积受到来水、来沙和水库运行情况等不确定性因素的影响，水库实际淤积量存在超过设计标准的风险性。本文以来水、来沙为主要的不确定性因素，通过对来水、来沙序列的随机模拟和水库冲淤计算，分析水库泥沙淤积量的风险度，为水库的风险决策提供依据。

The reservoir sedimentation is an important problem in reservoir projects. Because thesedimentation volume of reservoir is influenced by many indefinite factors, such as inflow,sediment and reservoiroperation. Actually, there is the risk that sedimentation volume exceeds the design standard.In this paper, inflowand sediment are regarded as main indefinite factors. The risk can be analysed by randomly simulating inflow andsediment series and calculating reservoir sedimentation,which will be taken as the basis of the division-making.