非方程灰色系统方法在长期水文预报中的应用初探

Primary Study on Application of Non-equation Gray System Method in The Longterm Hydrologic Forecasting

基于水文过程的复杂性和影响因子信息收集不完善这一基本事实，本文将流域水文系统视为含有灰元和灰信息的灰色系统，并初步实践了非方程灰色预报方法在长期水文预报中的应用。方法在一定意义上脱离了传统的以方程为中心的预报模式，它既考虑预报因子对预报量的不同影响程度，又不过分强调预报量与预报因子的具体相关函数形式，为长期水文预报提供了一种新思路。文中列出了实例，效果令人满意。

ecause the complex of hydrological process and unperfected information of influence factor,hy-drologic system in the basin is regarded as the Gray System with gray element and gray information. The non-equation gray forecast method is primarily applied in longterm hydrologic forecasting,The method seperatesitself from the traditional forecasting mode which takes equation as the center. The different effects of fore-cast factors on forecast estimation are considered,but the concrete form relative functions for forecast estima-tion and forecast factors are not stressed strongly.It is a new concept for longterm hydrologic forecasting.Theexamples are set in the paper.The good results are achieved.