作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化:美元的经验证据——兼论人民币的国际化问题

Currency Internationalization as a National Competitive Strategy:US Dollar's Empirical Evidence——And a Study on the Issue of Renminbi

布雷顿森林体系解体后,国际货币体系进入了多元储备货币时代。货币发行国可能获得的各种利益,或许是对现代信用货币竞相国际化的最好解释。作者认为,除了在国际金融体系中的话语权等无法计量的好处以外,货币国际化利益主要表现为国际铸币税收益,以及运用境外储备投资的金融业收益。文中以实证研究表明,可计量的美元国际化利益至2 0 0 2年底已累计高达953 0亿美元。同时估算,若2 0 1 0年实现人民币区域国际化,则1 0年内可获得近750 0亿元人民币的货币国际化利益。

The international monetary system has entered an era of multi reserve currencies since the collapse of Bretton Woods. The best reason why so many currencies went internationalized seems to be all the possible benefits the issuer of the international currencies should have gained. Apart from the immeasurable benefits like power to speak in the international financial forums, benefits of currency internationalization include international seigniorage revenue and financial profits from operating the offshore reserves of the currency. By rough estimates, the measurable benefits of US Dollar's internationalization have reached 953 billion dollars by the end of 2002. Besides, if Renminbi could realize regional internationalization by 2010, it is believed that China would have gained about 750 billion yuan in the coming ten years.