股票内在投资价值理论与中国股市泡沫问题

The Theory of the Stock Intrinsic Value and the Bubble of China's Stock Market

股票内在投资价值理论是评估股票内在投资价值的依据。而只有准确评估了股票的内在投资价值,投资者和决策者才能正确认识股市泡沫问题。本文首先对股票内在投资价值理论做了综述,然后对目前最前沿的股票内在投资价值模型(基于帐面价值和剩余收益的F O模型)做了改进,使之更具有实用价值。接着利用改进后的F O模型,测算了中国股市目前的内在投资价值以及中国股市泡沫的绝对规模和相对规模。计算表明,与2 0 0 1年6月份股市高峰期相比,2 0 0 4年底中国股市泡沫的绝对规模和相对规模都已大幅度下降。文章最后提出了几点政策建议。

The theory of the stock intrinsic value is very important to the investor and decision-maker. To estimate the intrinsic value accurately is the only way which the investor and decision-maker treat the stock bubble problem rightly . So the paper discusses the intrinsic value and the stock bubble .Firstly, the paper surveys the theory of the stock intrinsic value . Secondly, the paper modifies the Feltham-Olson model, and make it more applicable. Thirdly, it measures the bubble volume of China's stock market by the modified F-O model .We find that the absolute and relative scale of the bubble of China's stock market have dropped sharply in the previous three and half years. At the end ,the author gives some suggestions.