“股经背离”的存在性之争及其实证检验

A Paradox concerning Stock Market and Economic Growth and Positive Analyses

文章就“股经背离”现象的存在性问题从国际和国内层面进行了考证。我们在宾斯维杰等研究基础上通过跨国比较发现,近年来,美、日、德、加、英五国股市发展与经济增长呈现一种剪刀差现象,并且越来越严重,西方“股经背离”的存在性得到了较好的实证支持。然后,我们重点对中国“股经背离”存在性进行了研究,我们发现从 2001 年第一季度以来,中国股票市场和宏观经济出现了全面的而非局部的背离,股票市场既不是国有经济的晴雨表,也不是非国有经济的晴雨表。总的说来,“股经背离”的客观存在是不容质疑的。

This paper first analyzes the existence of the abnormal relation between stock market and economic growth with extensive international and internal empirical evidence. Based on the research of Binswenger et .al and by comparative studies in recent years, we find that there has been a negative correlation between stock market and economic growth in America、Japan、Germany、Canada and United Kingdom. Moreover, this abnormal relation is becoming more and more evident and is supported by a lot of evidence in western countries. Then we take a positive analysis on the problem whether there is an abnormal relation between stock market and economic growth in China or not. Our findings show that there is a general and obvious abnormal relation between stock market and economic growth from the first quarter of 2001. Stock market is neither the leading indicator of stateowned economy nor the leading indicator of private economy in China. In summary, we can draw a conclusion that there indeed exists a paradox between stock market and economic growth.