情景分析法对西部公路建设规模测算分析

Forecasting of Highway Construction Scale for West Region of China Based on Scene Analysis Method

在西部大开发的环境之下如何较为准确地测算发展需求是交通部门急需解决的问题。从与公路建设规模紧密相关的社会经济、运输需求和政策措施 3个方面着手 ,在各个指标与公路规模相关分析的基础上 ,运用情景分析法对西部公路建设关联情景进行了分析与设定 ,测算了不同情景发生所对应的公路建设规模及其敏感性。最后 ,通过可能的具体建设项目分析验证了预测结果的合理性。结果表明 ,情景分析法对于考虑政策差异对公路建设规模影响的预测是可行的。

Under the circumstance of rapid development in the west region of China, the accuracy of the highway scale forecasting is an emergency task for the decision-makers of transport department and others of related departments. The social economy, transportation demands and policy which have been commonly treated as three indicators closely related to highway scale are considered to quantify the correlation between each indicator and highway scale. On the basis of the quantified correlation, the possible scenes applying the Scene Analysis Method (SAM) are configured and the highway scale under different scenarios is forecasted. After analyzing the forecasting results, the forecasts for highway scale in the west region of China are recommended and the sensitivity analysis is presented. Finally, the rationality of the forecasting results is evaluated.