基于概率风险的系统安全性分析

The Analysis of System Safety Based on Probabilistic Risk

为得到系统层次上的安全性概率风险,获得定量的安全性决策依据,设计了基于概率风险的系统安全性分析方法,该方法将系统按某种标准划分成相应子系统,统计得到各子系统所有的危险源,建立相应的因果链,通过一定法则得到基于系统层次的概率风险,同时还讨论了设计方法中概率风险计算的难点问题。

In order to get the risk on the level of system and to obtain the quantitative decision reference of safety, this paper proposes an analytic method of system safety based on probabilistic risk. This method will divide the system into different subsystems according to some criterion, count the danger sources of all subsystems and build causality diagrams corresponding to danger sources, and at last compute the probabilistic risk on the level of system according to some rules. The difficult problem of computing the probabilistic risk by this method is discussed.