中国服务业发展与外商直接投资关系的实证研究

Positive Research on the Relationship between FDI and Development of China's Service Industry

服务业正日渐成为中国经济增长的引擎,也日益成为外商直接投资(FDI)的重点。本文主要利用20年的数据,在建立向量自回归模型以及格兰杰因果关系检验模型的基础上,对FDI与中国服务业发展的协整关系和因果关系进行了检验。得出FDI是促进中国服务业发展的因素之一,并分析了FDI对具体服务行业的选择变化,探讨其对服务业结构的影响。

Service industry is becoming the engine of China's economic growth, as well as the attractive field for the inward Foreign Direct Investment(FDI). Based on the data of nearly 20 years, the author establishes the Vector Auto-regression Model and Granger Causality Analysis Model in this paper to test the cointegration and granger causality between FDI and the growth of China's service industry. The study shows that FDI is one of the factors that propel the development of China's service industry. In this paper, the author also analyzes the change of FDI on the selecting of concrete services and tries to study the influences of FDI on the structure of service industry.