摘要
根据竞技体育的发展规律和我国竞技体育体制及全运会运作机制,确定参加九运会的30个省、直辖市、自治区的金牌、总分的影响因素,运用体育科研数据统计处理系统软件包,计算典型指标,进而建立九运会的金牌、总分回归预测模型,经由方差分析及相关性统计计算和检验,证明该模型可用于十运会的金牌、总分预测。
In accordance to the developing regulation in competitive sport, the system of competitive sports in China and the operating mechanism ofNational Games, this article determined the factors which affect the number of gold medals and the total scores got by the thirty provinces, municipalitiesdirectly under the Central Government and autonomous regions,taking part in the ninth National Game.By utilizing sports scientific research statistics,it handles systematic software package, calculates typical variable, and thenestablishes the regressive equations for gold medals and the total scores in the ninth National Game. After analysis of variance, related calculation and test, the model is proved trustworthy and can be applied to forecast for the number of goldmedals and the total points in tenth National Game.
出处
《天津体育学院学报》
CAS
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第2期45-48,共4页
Journal of Tianjin University of Sport
基金
浙江省体育局社会科学
软科学课题子课题(项目编号:浙体办(2004)115号)
关键词
全运会
金牌
总分
预测模型
National Games
gold medals
total scores
forecasting model
