基于重要度的城际轨道交通空间出行分布预测的研究

Study on Trip Spatial Distribution of Intercity Railway Based on Importance Degree

随着城市化进程的发展以及城市群的形成,发展城际轨道交通已成为解决交通的重要手段。因此,在城际轨道交通客流预测一般方法的基础上,针对影响出行空间分布相关因素,建立按小区间重要级数拟合的广义费用计算模型,并把广义费用作为交通阻抗应用于双约束重力模型,使出行的空间分布预测能充分反映小区间的社会经济及土地利用情况对交通分布的影响,可以在一定程度上提高预测的准确性。

Along with the development of urbanization course and the forming of urban agglomeration,intercity railway becomes an important measure for solving traffic problems. Aiming at the correlative factor of trip spatial distribution,this paper discusses common method of passenger volume forecast about intercity railway,and sets up a computing model for generalization cost correlating the zone′s progression of importance degree,applying generalization cost as resistance of traffic to the bi-restriction gravity model,which makes the trip distribution reflect fully the social economy and land utilization among zones. This model increases the veracity of forecast on a degree.