中国改革时期省际生产率增长变化的实证分析(1979—2001年)

An Empirical Analysis of Provincial Productivity in China (1979—2001)

中国经济的发展是否正在背离比较优势的原则?今后中国是否要加快经济增长模式的转变?本文试图通过对省际全要素生产率(TFP)及其组成部分的测算。从技术效率和技术进步这两个不同的方面来考察中国改革开放以来的TFP增长性质和近几年来的变化趋势，以便为相关政策讨论提供一些实证依据。我们的研究结果表明，中国经济增长在1978-1995年期间经历了一个TFP高增长期(为4．6％)；而在1996-2001年期间出现低增长期(为0．6％)，其变化的具体特征为：技术进步速度减慢、技术效率有所下降。

This study estimates provincial productivity growth in China for the period of 1979—2001. Productivity growth is found for most of the data period, but it is accomplished mainly through technical progress rather than efficiency improvement. The gap between Eastern and Western provinces in terms of technical efficiency levels and the rate of technical progress have been widening. Although capital has accumulated at a record speed, TFP growth has slowed down significantly during 1995—2001. The study raises serious questions on whether China's recent growth pattern is consistent with its comparative advantages, and whether its reliance on capital accumulation can be sustained in the long run.