流动性约束和不确定性状态下的预防性储蓄研究——中国城乡居民的消费特征分析

Precautionary Saving with Liquidity Constraints and Uncertainty——An Empirical Analysis of Chinese Rural and Urban Households

本文利用我国城乡时间序列数据，对城乡居民的消费特征做了新的探索。我们对引入预期收入增长的对数线性欧拉方程和二阶泰勒近似的欧拉方程进行了估计，结果说明，当期收入仍是决定我国居民消费的主要因素，消费的“随机游走”假说不成立；城镇居民比农村居民有更强的预防性储蓄动机。1990年代中期以来持续走低的收入增长率直接抑制了消费需求的增长。而仍然偏紧的流动性约束和日益增强的不确定性增大了预防性储蓄动机。

This paper studies the savings behavior of Chinese households by estimating the log-linearized and second-order approximation of the consumption Euler equation. Expected changes in income are found to be a strong predictor for expected changes in consumption, and the random walk hypothesis is rejected. Liquidity constraints and income uncertainty increase precautionary savings. Urban households are more inclined to take precautious savings. The paper also finds that the stagnation of income growth since the mid-1990s has slowed down consumption growth.