摘要
从鸦片战争到全国解放的历史时期，中国经济发展总体状况如何?一百余年间，中国经济增长的速度是快还是慢?这一百余年的经济史如何划分阶段?本文利用可以找到的中国近代经济统计资料，运用数理分析方法对中国经济近代化的程度、发展状况进行度量和分析，以回答上述问题。本文的研究始于19世纪80年代，止于20世纪30年代中期，由中国近代的经济增长；中国近代经济发展的中长周期波动；中国近代经济增长的总趋势与发展阶段三个部分组成。
What characterized the state of the Chinese economic situation over the century between the Opium War in 1840 and the Communist take-over in 1949? Growth, stagnation or decline? Were there distinctive periods or cycles? In this paper, the author provides a preliminary statistical analysis of the period 1880—1936. The paper consists of three parts. The first part provides a statistical profile of economic growth and structural change. The second part discusses the medium and long cycles. The third part analyzes the general trend and three periods of economic development in modern China.
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
2005年第2期461-490,共30页
China Economic Quarterly
