中年男性红细胞压积正常参考值与地理因素的灰色系统模型

Relationship between reference value of Chinese middlescent men’s hematocrit and geographical factors

目的为制定中国中年男性红细胞压积正常参考值的统一标准提供科学依据。方法收集了中国380个地区用温氏法(W introbe)测定的32475例健康中年男性红细胞压积正常参考值,运用灰色关联分析对其与海拔高度(x1),年日照时数(x2),年平均相对湿度(x3),年平均气温(x4),年降水量(x5)的关系进行了研究。考虑到常规的灰色关联度只体现正相关,不体现负相关等缺点,本文选取了一种改进的灰色关联度计算方法。随后,对5个地理影响因素值与红细胞压积正常参考值建立GM(1,6)模型并进行灰色预测。结果5个地理影响因素值与中年男性红细胞压积正常参考值的灰色关联度分别为ri分别是r1=0.7284,r2=0.6456,r3=-0.7021,r4=-0.7102,r5=-0.6901。建立如下GM(1,6)灰色微分方程y(k)+az(k)=b1x^1(k)+b2xx^2(k)+b3+x x^3(k)+b4x x^4(k)+b5x x^5(k),其中系数矩阵为[a,b1,b2,b3,b4,b5]=[-010353296,1,01000345,1,-010007826,2,-010309467,2,011218227,5,01001058],计算得红细胞压积正常参考值的模拟值,并对其进行误差检验,求得GM(1,6)模型的残差平方和为4907.91,平均相对误差为5.88%,原始值序列与模拟值序列的灰色关联度为0.7030,原始值序列与残差序列的均方差比值C=017312,从而判定该GM(1,6)模型合理。

Objective: In order to supply a basis for uniting the reference value standard of Chinese middlescent men’s hematocrit. Methods: A research is made about relationship between the reference value of 32475 examples Chinese healthy middlescent men’s hematocrit and five geographical factors in Chinese 380 areas,which are determined by the way of Wintrobe laws. Results: It is found that altitude is the main factor affecting the reference value of Chinese middlescent men’s hematocrit. As the altitude increases gradually,the reference value of Chinese middlescent men’s hematocrit also increases gradually,and the degree of grey incidence is quite obvious (r=0.7284). Applying the method of grey system,one GM(1,6) Grey diffenential equation is given out:y(k)+az(k)=b_1~x^_1 (k)+b_2x^x^_2 (k)+b_3+x^x^_3 (k)+b_4x^x^_4 (k)+b_5x^x^_5 (k),其中系数矩阵为:[a,b_1,b_2,b_3,b_4,b_5]=[-0.0353296,1,0.000345,1,^-0.0007826 ,2,-0.0309467,2,0.1218227,5,0.001058]Conclusion: If geographical values are obtained in some areas,the reference value of Chinese middlescent men’s hematocrit of this area can be reckoned by using GM(1,6) Grey diffenential equation. Furthermore,according to the similarity of the reference value of Chinese middlescent men’s hematocrit,taking the altitude as the main dividing basis and considering effects of other geographical factors and population distribution,China can be divided into six regions: Qingzang,Southwest,Northwest,Southeast,North and Northeast region.