经济虚拟化与虚拟经济的独立性特征研究——虚拟经济与实体经济关系的动态化过程

Capitalism and the independence of virtual economy: the dynamics between virtual and real economy

本文运用动态相关多元GARCH模型研究了1919年至2004年虚拟经济与实体经济相关性的时变特征。结果发现,虚拟经济与实体经济的相关性存在着明显的时变特征,具体表现为一个经济虚拟化的过程:二战前实体经济与虚拟经济存在着明显的相关性,随后呈现一个逐渐递减的趋势,在20世纪80年代后,虚拟经济表现出明显的独立性特征,经济运行方式与之前存在显著的差异,虚拟经济与实体经济呈两个相对独立的经济系统而存在,从而验证了经济虚拟化之后,虚拟经济作为与实体经济相对的经济系统的相对独立性特征。

We study the varying correlation between real economy and virtual economy from 1919 to 2004 by utilizing multi-varied Garch model. We find that these two economy systems have significant time-varying characters, namely capitalism. Before World War Two, there are significant correlation between virtual and real economy, and then the time-varying coefficient appears descending trend, after 1980s, the virtual economy shows a typical independence and difference in its operation. We argued that after capitalization of economy, the virtual and real economy are two independent economy systems.