经常项目逆差会导致货币危机吗

Will the adverse balance of current account result in monetary crisis?

经常项目逆差与货币危机之间存在着相互关系。从理论上分析,汇率变动率可分解为经常项目差额变动率、资本项目差额变动率以及综合影响比率三者之和;但从实证角度看,汇率变动与其影响因素的变动关系相当复杂。研究显示,该关系很难直接通过线性回归模型来表达。通过相关分析,我们揭示出经常项目逆差与汇率贬值存在较明显的正相关关系;汇率贬值与GDP增长有较强的负相关性。但中国的情况似乎有些特殊,仍有待进一步考察。

There is correlation between the adverse balance of current account and monetary crisis. In theory, exchange rate margin can be divided into current account margin, capital account margin, and comprehensive ratio. But in practically, the correlation between exchange rate margin and its affected factors is complex. This study shows that this correlation is difficult to display by linear regression model through correlation analysis. We find that there is a positive correlation between the adverse balance of current account and the exchange rate depreciate, and there is a negative correlation between the exchange rate depreciate and the GDP growth.