东北区夏季低温冷害的长期预报方法研究

Method Study on Long-term Forecast of Summer Freezing Damage in Northeast China

利用东北区三大站 (沈阳、长春、哈尔滨 ) 5 0年 (1 95 1～ 2 0 0 0年 )夏季平均气温、前冬和夏季 5 0 0 h Pa高度场、距平场及副高面积指数、海温场资料 ,对东北夏季低温冷害的环流特征进行了分析 ,建立了东北区夏季低温冷害预报模式 ;用春季高度距平平均场建立了夏季低温冷害天气预报模型。结果表明 ,东北区低温冷害与冬季副高面积指数及 5 0 0 h Pa乌拉尔山附近的高度值呈正相关关系 ,与冬季西风漂流区附近 (40°～ 4 5°N,1 6 0°～ 1 5 0°N)海温场呈反相关关系。所建方程及模式预报拟合率和预报准确率都比较高 。

The characteristics of Summer freezing damage in northeast China are analyzed by using the mean temperature in Jun-August for the period 1951～2000, height field, distance from mean of 500hpa, the area index for subtropical anticyclone and the sea temperature data observed at Shenyang, Changchun and Haerbin meteorological observatories. A model for forecasting summer freezing damage in northeast China is established. By use of the height distance field in spring, a model for summer freezing weather forecast is worked out too. The result shows that the freezing damage in northwest China have a positive correlation with the area index for subtropical anticyclone in winter, 500hpa and sea temperature. The equation and forecast fit well with the forecast models. The forecast can be made about three months in advance.