气候变化与水稻生长发育及产量形成关系的模拟研究

Relationships between climate change and rice development and its yield formation:A simulation study

应用水稻生长日历模拟模型 (RICAM 1 3)模拟亚洲地区不同地点和不同气候条件下水稻的生育期和产量形成 .其中 3s Beta模型被用于预测水稻开花期和描述水稻光温反应的 3个连续阶段 :基本营养生长期、光敏感期和光敏感后期 .从时间与地理梯度的变化对水稻产量进行模拟 ,以中国、日本和菲律宾作为从北到南的地理梯度 ,以 2 0世纪 80年代气候变化作为时间梯度 ,应用RICAM 1 3进行模拟 .结果表明 ,模型具有广泛的适应性 ,能较好地模拟不同气候条件和不同水稻品种生育期的变化与产量的形成 .

With the application of mechanistic model (RICAM 1.3,RIce growth Calendar Model),this paper simulated the rice development and its yield formation under different climatic conditions at multi locations of Asia.A three stage Beta model (3s Beta) was developed to predict the flowering stage of rice and to describe its three successive phases of photo thermal response, i.e .,basic vegetative phase,photoperiod sensitive phase,and post photoperiod sensitive phase.The 1980～1989 multi location data of Morioka (Japan,39°43′N),Nanchang (China,28°36′N) and Los Banos (Philippines,14°11′N) were used to verify the suitability of the model in studying eco system change.Comparisons of simulated results with observed data showed that this model could generally predict the eco physiological processes of rice,and performed very well over a wide range of environments.